Credit determinants

an analysis of the Nossocrédito program of Espírito Santo from 2013 to 2015

Abstract

Microcredit has gained prominence in Brazil and worldwide as a type of loan for microentrepreneurs, especially those located in the informal sector. In the state of Espírito Santo, the prominent experience is the Nossocrédito Program, which has a large number of services throughout its years of operation. The objective of this work is to analyze the credit determinants of the Nossocrédito of Espírito Santo Program in the period from 2013 to 2015. For this, the relationships of socioeconomic variables such as income, population and the IFDM were studied, as well as the sex and sector variables for which the credit is intended, in addition to the gross revenue of microentrepreneurs, to verify whether these variables have any effect on the average level of credit granted by the program to the municipalities of Espírito Santo. As an instrument, used panel data econometric modeling with fixed effects. The results found pointed to a positive effect of the population and the PIB per capita of the municipalities in the average amount of credit granted, which demonstrates that the program mainly serves the most populous municipalities and with the highest PIB per capita. In contrast, the municipalities considered less developed by the IFDM, which allocate more credits to the informal sector and to female borrowers, had a lower average loan amount. Concludes that the socioeconomic variables have an influence on the amount of credit provided by the program and that Nossocrédito presents some difficulties to serve the target audience of microcredit programs.

Keywords: Credit. Panel Data. Microcredit. Regional Development.