Climate change, intranational trade and agricultural exports in the light of the gravitational model

estimates for the brazilian northeast

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24302/drd.v10i0.2771

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze the impacts of climate change on the export capacity of the Northeast region of Brazil. Specifically, we sought to evaluate the impact of levels of temperature and precipitation on the exports of food products and live animals in the region, as well as the region's intranational exports. From the gravitational models approach, widely used in studies of the determinants of trade flows, it was possible to estimate the effect of climate change on trade flows. The results show that exports are negatively affected by the rise in temperature. In addition, the increase of 1% in levels precipitation, on average, the increase of approximately 0.53% of intranational exports. However, the effect of this variable on exports of food products and live animals in the region was not statistically significant. Therefore, it is concluded that the temperature increase negatively impacts the export volume of the region.

Keywords: Temperature. Exports. Panel Data. Climate Changes. Sustainable Developmen.

Author Biographies

Joelson Oliveira Santos, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Mestrando no Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (PPECO-UFRN). Bacharel em Economia pela Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte. Rio Grande do Norte. Brasil.

Janaina da Silva Alves, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Doutora em Economia pela Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE). Recife. Pernambuco. Brasil. Professora do Departamento de Economia e do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (PPECO-UFRN), Natal. Rio Grande do Norte. Brasil.

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Published

2020-05-08

How to Cite

Santos, J. O., & Alves, J. da S. (2020). Climate change, intranational trade and agricultural exports in the light of the gravitational model: estimates for the brazilian northeast. DRd - Desenvolvimento Regional Em Debate, 10, 324–347. https://doi.org/10.24302/drd.v10i0.2771

Issue

Vol. 10 (2020)

Section

Artigos

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