Mudanças climáticas, comércio intranacional e exportações agrícolas à luz do modelo gravitacional: estimativas para o nordeste brasileiro

Joelson Oliveira Santos; Janaina da Silva Alves

doi:10.24302/drd.v10i0.2771

Climate change, intranational trade and agricultural exports in the light of the gravitational model

estimates for the brazilian northeast

Authors

Joelson Oliveira Santos Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9689-9505
Janaina da Silva Alves Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0182-3119

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24302/drd.v10i0.2771

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze the impacts of climate change on the export capacity of the Northeast region of Brazil. Specifically, we sought to evaluate the impact of levels of temperature and precipitation on the exports of food products and live animals in the region, as well as the region's intranational exports. From the gravitational models approach, widely used in studies of the determinants of trade flows, it was possible to estimate the effect of climate change on trade flows. The results show that exports are negatively affected by the rise in temperature. In addition, the increase of 1% in levels precipitation, on average, the increase of approximately 0.53% of intranational exports. However, the effect of this variable on exports of food products and live animals in the region was not statistically significant. Therefore, it is concluded that the temperature increase negatively impacts the export volume of the region.

Keywords: Temperature. Exports. Panel Data. Climate Changes. Sustainable Developmen.

Author Biographies

Joelson Oliveira Santos, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Mestrando no Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (PPECO-UFRN). Bacharel em Economia pela Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte. Rio Grande do Norte. Brasil.

Janaina da Silva Alves, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Doutora em Economia pela Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE). Recife. Pernambuco. Brasil. Professora do Departamento de Economia e do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (PPECO-UFRN), Natal. Rio Grande do Norte. Brasil.

Downloads

PDF/A (Português (Brasil))

Published

2020-05-08

How to Cite

Santos, J. O., & Alves, J. da S. (2020). Climate change, intranational trade and agricultural exports in the light of the gravitational model: estimates for the brazilian northeast. DRd - Desenvolvimento Regional Em Debate, 10, 324–347. https://doi.org/10.24302/drd.v10i0.2771

Download Citation

Issue

Vol. 10 (2020)

Section

Artigos

License

Ao submeter o seu texto para posterior publicação, o autor estará, automaticamente, cedendo os direitos autorais para a revista. À revista reserva-se o direito autoral do trabalho publicado.

Copyright declaration

By submitting your text for subsequent publishing, the author will be, automatically, passing the copyrights for the magazine. It is reserved to the magazine the copyright of the assignment published.